During the Beijing Olympics, the former US President George Bush and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin were seen exchanging a warm embrace and laughing together. However, only four days later, Bush gave a serious speech from the White House rose garden, in which he made it clear that a serious split has emerged between the US and Russia due to the recent conflict in Georgia.
Georgia had launched a military strike on the province of South Ossetia, aiming to reclaim it after 16 years of semi-independence. In response, Russia sent tanks in. Moscow says Georgian forces had killed Russian peacekeepers there and were committing acts of "ethnic cleansing" of native Russians living there. Georgia, which borders Russia, is a former Soviet republic. It declared its independence in 1991 after the collapse of communism. Many of the 70,000 people in South Ossetia speak Russian and carry Russian passports. Relations between the two have been tense, as Moscow tries to reassert influence over nations that border it. Georgia has aligned itself with the West and wants to join NATO — a desire the Bush administration supports. Georgia insists it had no choice but to act after what it says are increasing attacks from separatists. Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili claims Moscow took advantage of situation to "invade" his country while the world's attention was focused on the Olympics in Beijing.
In the first crucial hours, the U.S. press reported the fact that it was John McCain's pal Mikheil Saakashvili who had set the ball rolling with Georgia's initial lethal bombardment in South Ossetia. Russia responded forcefully and the then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rushed to Warsaw for a photo-op with Polish leaders, signing a deal to install missile defense early-warning radar systems. Since then, the rhetoric has steadily got hotter, though John McCain carefully toned down the bluster in his convention speech in St. Paul.
Vladimir Putin duly denounced the scheduled deployment of these systems in Poland and the Czech Republic as unacceptable threats to Russian security. In 2007, the Russian leader declared in a press conference that "once the missile defense system is put in place, it will work automatically with the entire nuclear capability of the United States. ... It simply changes the whole configuration of international security. ... Of course, we have to respond to that."
Thus, with much bluster, both sides continue to shovel billions to their respective military-industrial sectors. Missile defense has been a Pentagon boondoggle for more than half a century. Since Ronald Reagan repackaged it in 1983 as the Strategic Defense Initiative, the United States has spent as much as $100 billion, with another $100 billion already pledged for research, operating expenses, and the like between now and 2015.
However, these anti-missile systems don't work because of the presence of uncertainty that is the essential ingredient of nuclear deterrence. Despite hundreds of faked tests, the anti-missile missiles can in no way be guaranteed to hit their targets.
Thus, from this passage, we can see that a cold war might be brewing, for both of the
countries have different views towards the Georgia invasion, and Russia invaded Georgia while the United States choose to support Georgia in the conflict.
In some sense, this can be seen as an arm’s race, for both sides continued to shovel billions to their respective military-industrial sector. And this is somewhat history repeating itself, the same as the Cuban Missile Crisis, which was a confrontation between the United States, the Soviet Union, and Cuba in October 1962, during the Cold War, where both countries were threatening each other with missiles and nuclear weapons. Both powers built large radar arrays to detect incoming bombers and missiles. Fighters to use against bombers and anti-ballistic missiles to use against ICBMs were also developed. Large underground bunkers were constructed to save the leadership of the superpowers, and individuals were told to build fallout shelters and taught how to react to a nuclear attack (civil defense). These bombs could kill millions in the event of an attack by either side.
However, on the other hand, the article below has shown that the relations of US and Russia has improved greatly recently.
U.S.-Russia Relations Improved, but Not Perfect
Mark Knoller
Facing a significant "backlog of problems" on the U.S.-Russian agenda, Presidents Obama and Medvedev were determined that their summit produce some worthwhile agreements.
"We resolved to reset U.S.-Russian relations, so that we can cooperate more effectively in areas of common interest," said Mr. Obama as he and Medvedev formally announced the deals their talks were designed to finalize:
** A commitment to negotiate by year's end a further reduction in the numbers of nuclear warheads in the U.S. and Russian arsenals to between 1,500 and 1,675. The same deal would also limit the number of delivery vehicles to between 500 and 1,100.
** A joint statement to pursue further cooperation in efforts to stem the proliferation of ballistic missiles, which can be used as strategic delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons.
** An agreement allowing the U.S. to transport military personnel, equipment and weapons through Russian airspace to Afghanistan. Deal permits 4,500 flights a year. White House says it will save the U.S. $133-million annually.
** A joint statement to expand cooperation to prevent the further proliferation of nuclear weapons and stop acts of nuclear terrorism.
** A new framework for the Joint Commission on POWs and MIAs. It's a stepped up effort to resolve the fates of unaccounted-for military personnel who served in World War II, Korea, Vietnam and the Cold War – including Soviet military forces in Afghanistan.
** A Memorandum of Understanding for expanded cooperation in the fields of public health and medical science, including research and treatment on HIV/AIDS.
** An agreement signed today by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen and his Russian counterpart, resuming military-to-military cooperation between the U.S. and Russia. The new framework includes exchange of military cadets and a joint exercise in response to a hijacked aircraft.
These deals reflect an effort by both sides to rebuild the U.S-Russian relationship which turned decisively sour in August of last year after Russia's attacks on neighboring Georgia. Then- President Bush condemned the Russian invasion as "bullying and intimidation." The situation remains a contentious issue.
And Russia is still adamantly opposed to American plans to install anti-missile missiles in Eastern Europe.
"This is a point of deep concern and sensitivity to the Russian government," acknowledged Mr. Obama. Like his predecessor, he says Russia has no reason to fear such a project as the missiles would target an attack by Iran or other rogue state, not Russia.
Medvedev calls it "a step forward" that the Obama Administration is reviewing the missile defense program and will share its findings and decisions with Russia.
"Our understanding is that these decisions do concern us and we will have to come to terms on these positions," said Medvedev.
It means the suspicions and rivalries of the past may be diminished, but are definitely not yet buried.
I agree with the author that suspicions and rivalries of the past, during the cold war where the Soviet Union and the US were weary of each other’s actions and intentions may have diminished, but that does not mean that they are wiped out completely.
On a side note, the nuclear accident on 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic also showed us how fragile the relationship between Russia/Soviet Union and US is. During the disaster, the radiation was also received in some parts of the United States, hence, it was natural that the relationship between the Soviet Union and US more strain, adding on the cold war strained relationship. Thus, the Soviet Union’s leader at that time, Gorbachev had to make extra efforts to ease Soviet Union’s relationship with the US. Who is to say that such an incident might not happen again and strain their relationship? Their relationship is founded on very brittle trust towards each other, just a small catalyst would be able to spark off another cold war, though the Russia and US have appeared to have improved relations.
Therefore, there are two sides to the coin, but it is more inclined towards a high possibility of another cold war.
Dayna Yong
http://www.albionmonitor.com/0809a/copyright/ac-georgiacoldwar.html
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-08-08-question-answer_N.htm
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